重庆欢乐生肖

欢迎访问 草业科学,今天是

gaohanmuqunonghudeshengjifengxianjiyingduicelve: yigannanzhouxiahexianweili

郭秀丽 杨彬如

引用本文: 郭秀丽,杨彬如. 高寒牧区农户的生计风险及应对策略: 以甘南州夏河县为例. 草业科学, 2020, 37(10): 2142-2151 doi: shu
Citation:  GUO X L, YANG B R. Livelihood risk and coping strategies of farmers in alpine pastoral areas in China: A case of Xiahe County, Gannan Prefecture. Pratacultural Science, 2020, 37(10): 2142-2151 doi: shu

高寒牧区农户的生计风险及应对策略: 以甘南州夏河县为例

    通讯作者: 郭秀丽,
  • 基金项目:重庆欢乐生肖 国家社科基金西部项目(18XKS025);国家民委民族研究一般项目(2019-GMB-030);2019年度甘肃省社科规划项目(19YB096);甘肃省高等学校创新能力提升项目(2019A-087);甘肃省高等学校创新能力提升项目(2019B-112);甘肃政法大学重大项目(GZF2018XZD04)

摘要: 生计风险是研究农户生计问题的重要视角,其核心目标在于通过生计风险评估及其影响因素研究,探寻提高农户抵御生计风险能力的策略。本研究以地处青藏高原东北部边缘的甘南州夏河县为例,采用参与式农村评估法,对比分析不同类型农户面临的主要生计风险及其应对策略,在建立二元Logistic回归模型的基础上,定量分析影响农户风险应对策略选择的主要因素,探讨提高高寒牧区农户风险抵御能力的对策。结果表明: 1)从农户发展过程中面对的风险类型看,就业风险、健康风险和教育风险是其主要生计风险,其中又以健康风险对农户持续发展的影响较大;2)从应对风险的策略看,外出务工、向亲友求助、向银行贷款和等政府救济是农户的主要风险应对策略,其中外出务工策略又受到健康风险和教育风险的影响;3)从农户风险应对策略的影响因子看,外出打工是各类农户普遍采取的重要风险应对策略,农户的生计资本对其无显著影响;自然资本是影响向亲友求助策略的关键因子,且对其具有显著正向影响;金融资本、自然资本和社会资本是影响银行借贷策略的关键因子,其中,金融资本和自然资本对其具有显著正向影响,社会资本对其具有显著负向影响;金融资本是影响等政府救济策略的关键因子,金融资本越低的农户越急切地等待救济。基于以上研究结果,本研究提出了提高高寒牧区农户生计风险抵御能力的对策建议,包括: 1)通过构建社区金融互助平台有效提升农户金融资本;2)通过发展基础教育和职业培训来逐步降低农户教育和就业风险;3)大力发展乡村公共医疗卫生事业和农村医疗保险,提高农户抵御健康风险的能力。

English

    1. [1]

      陈传波, 丁士军.  对农户风险及其处理策略的分析[J]. 中国农村经济, 2003, (11): 66-71.
      CHEN C B, DING S J.  Research on farmer’s risk and its strategy of management[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2003, (11): 66-71.

    2. [2]

      KNUTSSON P, OSTWALD M.  A process-oriented sustainable livelihoods approach: A tool for increased understanding of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change重庆欢乐生肖, 2006, (): -.

    3. [3]

      SHERBININ A D, VANWEY L, MCSWEENEY K, AGGARWAL R, BARBIERI A, HENRY S, HUNTER L M, TWINE W.  Rural household demograohics, livelihoods and the environment[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2008, (18): 38-53.

    4. [4]

      陈传波.  农户风险与脆弱性: 一个分析框架及贫困地区的经验[J]. 农业经济问题, 2005, (8): 47-50.
      CHEN C B.  Household risk and vulnerability: An analytical framework and experience in poor areas[J]. Problem of Agricultural Economy重庆欢乐生肖, 2005, (8): 47-50.

    5. [5]

      马小勇.  中国农户的风险规避行为分析: 以陕西为例[J]. 中国软科学, 2006, (2): 22-30.
      MA X Y.  Risk avoiding behavior of Chinese farmers: An empirical study in Shanxi[J]. China Soft Science, 2006, (2): 22-30.

    6. [6]

      苏芳, 尚海洋.  农户生计资本对其风险应对策略的影响: 以黑河流域张掖市为例[J]. 中国农村经济, 2012, (8): 79-87, 96.
      SU F, SHANG H Y.  The impact of the farmers’ livelihood capital on their risk coping strategy: A case of Zhangye in Heihe River[J]. Chinese Rural Economy重庆欢乐生肖, 2012, (8): 79-87, 96.

    7. [7]

      赵雪雁, 赵海莉, 刘春芳.  石羊河下游农户的生计风险及应对策略: 以民勤绿洲区为例[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(5): 922-932.
      ZHAO X Y, ZHAO H L, LIU C F.  The farmers’ livelihood risk and their coping strategy in the downstream of Shiyang River: A case of Minqin Oasis[J]. Geographical Research重庆欢乐生肖, 2015, 34(5): 922-932.

    8. [8]

      SHAHNAZ B.  Risk, vulnerability and sustainable livelihoods: Insights from northwest Pakistan[J]. Islamabad, Pakistan: Sustainable Development Policy Institute重庆欢乐生肖, 2008, (): 37-48.

    9. [9]

      孙晗霖, 刘新智, 张鹏瑶.  贫困地区精准脱贫户生计可持续及其动态风险研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2019, 29(2): 145-155.
      SUN H L, LIU X Z, ZHANG P Y.  Study on livelihood sustainability and its dynamic risk of targeted poverty-alleviation households in poverty-stricken areas[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment重庆欢乐生肖, 2019, 29(2): 145-155.

    10. [10]

      MASUD I M S, SALIM M, RAY R.  Vulnerability of rural livelihoods to multiple stressors: A case study from the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh[J]. Ocean and Coastal Management, 2014, 102(): 79-87.

    11. [11]

      苏芳, 李景坤, 许韶华.  基于BP神经网络的农户生计风险评价模型[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(6): 1381-1390.
      SU F, LI J K, XU S H.  An assessment model of farmer livelihood risk based on BP neuralnetwork[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2017, 39(6): 1381-1390.

    12. [12]

      苏芳.  农户生计风险对其生计资本的影响分析: 以石羊河流域为例[J]. 农业技术经济, 2017, (12): 87-97.
      SU F.  Analysis on the impact of livelihood risk on the livelihood capital of farmers: A case of Shiyang River basin[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2017, (12): 87-97.

    13. [13]

      苏芳, 殷娅娟, 尚海洋.  甘肃石羊河流域农户生计风险感知影响因素分析[J]. 经济地理, 2019, 39(6): 191-197, 240.
      SU F, YIN Y J, SHANG H Y.  Influencing factors of farmers’ livelihood risk perception in Shiyang River basin of Gansu Province[J]. Economic Geography, 2019, 39(6): 191-197, 240.

    14. [14]

      丁文强, 侯向阳, 董海宾, 李西良, 尹燕亭, 刘慧慧.  牧民生计资本对旱灾应对策略的影响: 以内蒙古自治区为例[J]. 草业科学, 2019, 36(12): 3191-3202.
      DING W Q, HOU X Y, DONG H B, LI X L, YIN Y T, LIU H H.  Effects of herdsmen’s livelihood capital on drought response strategies: a case study from Inner Mongolia[J]. Pratacultural Science, 2019, 36(12): 3191-3202.

    15. [15]

      马艳艳, 赵雪雁, 兰海霞, 薛冰.  重点生态功能区农户的生计风险多维感知及影响因素: 以甘南黄河水源补给区为例[J]. 生态学报, 2020, 40(5): 1810-1824.
      MA Y Y, ZHAO X Y, LAN H X, XUE B.  Livelihood risk multi-dimensional perception and influencing factors in key ecological function area: A case of the Yellow River Water Supply Area of Gannan[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica重庆欢乐生肖, 2020, 40(5): 1810-1824.

    16. [16]

      TURNER F B.  The ecological efficiency of consumer populations[J]. Ecology, 1970, 51(4): 741-742. doi:

    17. [17]

      葛少芸.  落实“草畜平衡制度”发挥草原生态服务功能: 以甘肃甘南黄河重要水源补给生态功能区为例[J]. 草业科学, 2010, 27(6): 71-76.
      GE S Y.  Implememtation of “the regulation of equilibrium of pasture and livestock” is the important support to realize ecological service function of grasslands[J]. Pratacultural Science重庆欢乐生肖, 2010, 27(6): 71-76.

    18. [18]

      魏金平, 李萍.  甘南黄河重要水源补给生态功能区生态脆弱性及成因分析[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2009, 30(6): 56-61.
      WEI J P, LI P.  Ecological frangibility and its formation cause of important water-supply ecological function area of Yellow River in south Gansu Province[J]. Agricultural Resources and Regionalization in China重庆欢乐生肖, 2009, 30(6): 56-61.

    19. [19]

      夏河县统计局. 2018年夏河县国民经济和社会发展统计公报.[2019-01-12]
      重庆欢乐生肖 Statistics Bureau of Xiahe County. Statistical bulletin of national economic and social development of Xiahe County in 2018.[2019-01-12] .

    20. [20]

      张强.  2010 – 2015年甘南州夏河县草地植被动态变化分析[J]. 环境研究与监测, 2017, 30(2): 5-8.
      ZHANG Q.  Analysis of grassland vegetation dynamic changes in Xiahe County of Gannan during 2010 – 2015[J]. Environmental Study and Monitoring, 2017, 30(2): 5-8.

    21. [21]

      张峰, 石军伟, 陈鹏.  甘肃夏河县发生地震 武警甘肃总队高效救援[J]. 中国减灾, 2019, (23): 10-.
      ZHANG F, SHI J W, CHEN P.  An earthquake struck in Xiahe County, Gansu Province, Gansu armed police corps efficient rescue[J]. Disaster Reduction in China, 2019, (23): 10-.

    22. [22]

      HAO H G, ZHANG J P, LI X B, ZHANG H Y, ZHANG Q.  Impact of livelihood diversification of rural households on their ecological footprint in agro-pastoral areas of northern China[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2015, 7(5): 653-664. doi:

    23. [23]

      王阳, 孟梅.  生计资本对北疆搬迁定居牧民生活满意度的影响[J]. 草业科学, 2017, 34(5): 1121-1128.
      WANG Y, MENG M.  Impact of livelihood capital on life satisfaction of relocation herdsmen in norther Xinjiang[J]. Pratacultural Science重庆欢乐生肖, 2017, 34(5): 1121-1128.

    24. [24]

      KAY S.  Measuring destitution: Integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches the analysis of survey data[J]. IDS Working Paper, 2003, (): 217-233.

    25. [25]

      李小云, 董强, 饶小龙, 赵丽霞.  农户脆弱性分析方法及其本土化应用[J]. 中国农村经济, 2007, (4): 32-39.
      LI X Y, DONG Q, RAO X L, ZHAO L X.  Methods of assessing vulnerability of farmers and local use[J]. Chinese Rural Economy重庆欢乐生肖, 2007, (4): 32-39.

    26. [26]

      赵雪雁, 李巍, 杨培涛, 刘霜.  生计资本对甘南高原农牧民生计活动的影响[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2011, 21(4): 111-118.
      ZHAO X Y, LI W, YANG P T, LIU S.  Impact of livelihood capital on the livelihood activities of farmers and herdsmen on Gannan Platea[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment重庆欢乐生肖, 2011, 21(4): 111-118.

    27. [27]

      郭秀丽, 周立华, 陈勇, 杨国靖, 赵敏敏, 王睿.  典型沙漠化地区农户生计资本对生计策略的影响: 以内蒙古自治区杭锦旗为例[J]. 生态学报, 2017, 37(20): 6963-6972.
      GUO X L, ZHOU L H, CHEN Y, YANG G J, ZHAO M M, WANG R.  Impact of farmers’ livelihood capital on livelihood strategy in a typical desertification area in the inner mongolia autonomous region[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2017, 37(20): 6963-6972.

    28. [28]

      夏河县统计局. 2015年夏河县国民经济和社会发展统计公报.[2019-01-12]
      Statistics Bureau of Xiahe County. Statistical bulletin of national economic and social development of Xiahe County in 2015.[2019-01-12]

    29. [29]

      夏河县统计局. 2016年夏河县国民经济和社会发展统计公报. [2019-01-12]
      Statistics Bureau of Xiahe County. Statistical bulletin of national economic and social development of xiahe county in 2016. [2019-01-12]

    30. [30]

      夏河县统计局. 2017年夏河县国民经济和社会发展统计公报. [2019-01-12] 
      Statistics Bureau of Xiahe County. Statistical bulletin of national economic and social development of xiahe county in 2017. [2019-01-12] 

    31. [31]

      丁建军, 冷志明.  区域贫困的地理学分析[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(2): 232-247.
      DING Y J, LENG Z M.  Regional poverty analysis in a view of geography science[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica重庆欢乐生肖, 2018, 73(2): 232-247.

    1. [1]

      胡继然姚娟 . 牧户多样化生计与草地生态系统服务的依赖关系: 以喀拉峻天山世界自然遗产地为例. 草业科学, 2020, 37(4): 800-811. doi:  重庆欢乐生肖

    2. [2]

      丁文强侯向阳董海宾李西良尹燕亭刘慧慧 . 牧民生计资本对旱灾应对策略的影响:以内蒙古自治区为例. 草业科学, 2019, 36(12): 3191-3202. doi: 

    3. [3]

      孙启忠陶雅徐丽君重庆欢乐生肖 . 刍议苜蓿产业中的风险及其应对策略. 草业科学, 2013, 7(10): 1676-1684.

    4. [4]

      王阳孟梅 . 生计资本对北疆搬迁定居牧民生活满意度的影响. 草业科学, 2017, 11(5): 1121-1128. doi:  重庆欢乐生肖

    5. [5]

      齐月刘伟玲张林波龚斌徐翠冯宏昭吴志丰 . 生态补偿对泽库县牧民与移民生计影响的比较. 草业科学, 2014, 8(6): 1178-1184. doi:  重庆欢乐生肖

    6. [6]

      张佳宁 . 祁连山北坡高寒草地退化现状及应对策略. 草业科学, 2014, 8(4): 776-780.

    7. [7]

      孟宝平陈思宇崔霞冯琦胜梁天刚 . 基于多源遥感数据的高寒草地生物量反演模型精度——以夏河县桑科草原试验区为例. 草业科学, 2015, 9(11): 1730-1739. doi: 

    8. [8]

      谢增武王 坤曹世雄重庆欢乐生肖 . 中草药种植对宁夏居民生计及环境修复的影响. 草业科学, 2013, 7(9): 1475-1481.

    9. [9]

      张国胜??洋颜亮东刘宝康石德军杨力军 . 三江源地区雪灾风险预警指标体系及风险管理研究. 草业科学, 2009, 3(5): 144-150.

    10. [10]

      重庆欢乐生肖  qinghaigaoyuanxuezaifengxiandupingjiamoxingyufengxianquhuatantao. caoyekexue, 2010, 4(11): 37-42.

    11. [11]

       yefangmiluzhongqunmiejuefengxianyushengcunlifenxi. caoyekexue, 2009, 3(12): 108-112.

    12. [12]

       muqucaodichengbaojingyingquanliuzhuanjiqiduimuminshengjideyingxiangyineimenggucaoyuanmuquweili. caoyekexue, 2010, 4(5): 130-135.

    13. [13]

       caopingcaobinghaifengxianxingpinggutixidechubujianlijiyingyong. caoyekexue, 2012, 6(8): 1199-1205.

    14. [14]

      王卫国潘竟虎李俊峰 . 基于空间Logistic的山西省火灾风险评价与火险区划. 草业科学, 2016, 10(4): 635-644. doi:  重庆欢乐生肖

    15. [15]

      李文龙蔡栋苏文亮魏巍朱高峰赵志刚许静 . 基于SPEI指数与GIS技术的高寒草地干旱生态风险动态评价. 草业科学, 2019, 36(6): 1531-1543. doi: 

    16. [16]

      冶娜娜张灵菲卫万荣王菊霞张小刚麻安卫江小雷 . 啮齿动物应对植物次生代谢物的行为策略. 草业科学, 2015, 9(2): 281-286. doi:  重庆欢乐生肖

    17. [17]

      李 薇陈秉谱 . 河西地区农户耕地流转现状及对策以武威市凉州区为例. 草业科学, 2013, 7(9): 1462-1468.

    18. [18]

      重庆欢乐生肖  tianzhuxiantianrancaodituihuachengyinjiduicefenxi. caoyekexue, 2012, 6(11): 1678-1683.

    19. [19]

      重庆欢乐生肖  tongweixiancaochanyexianzhuangyufazhanduice. caoyekexue, 2009, 3(9): 84-89.

    20. [20]

       qingzanggaoyuanbianyuandiqucaodiliyongxianzhuangjichixuliyongcelveyitianzhuxianweili. caoyekexue, 2011, 5(9): 1690-1694.

  • 重庆欢乐生肖

    表 1  不同类型受访农户特征

    Table 1.  The characteristics of different types of farmers who were interviewed

    农户类型
    Type of
    farmers
    每户劳动力数
    量 Quantity of
    labor force per
    household
    采取不同生计活动方式的农户比例1)
    The proportion of households with different livelihood activities/%
    人均收入/元
    Per capita
    income/
    CNY
    种植
    Plant
    畜牧 Raise
    livestock
    打工
    Wage
    工资性工作
    Permanent job
    经商 Engage
    in trade
    搞运输
    Transportation
    其他
    Other jobs
    基本型
    Basic type
    2.2091.1832.3585.290.000.000.001.475 572
    缺失型
    Deficit type
    2.140.000.0087.506.2525.0025.000.007 302
    发展型
    Developmental type
    2.6965.000.0070.0070.0040.0020.005.0012 492
     1)为采取该项生计活动的受访户数量占此类型受访户总数的百分比。
     1) is the percentage of respondents adopting the livelihood activity out of the total number of respondents of this type.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 2  模型变量描述

    Table 2.  重庆欢乐生肖 description of the model variables

    维度 Dimension指标
    Index
    赋值
    Assignment
    权重 Weight
    人力资本 Human capital 家庭整体劳动能力 (H1) Household labor capacity 非劳动力为0;半劳动力为0.5;全劳动力为1.0
    The non-labor force is 0; half of the labor force is 0.5; the whole labor force is 1.0
    0.522
    成年劳动力的受教育程度(H2) The educational level of the household members 文盲(不会汉语)为0;文盲(会汉语)为0.2;小学为0.4;初中为0.6;高中为0.8;大专及以上为1.0 Illiterate (unable to speak Chinese) is 0; illiterate (can speak Chinese) is 0.2; primary school is 0.4; junior high school is 0.6; senior high school is 0.8; junior college and above is 1.0 0.478
    自然资本 Natural capital 耕地面积 (N1)
    Cultivated area
    人均耕地面积 Per cultivated area/hm2 0.448
    草地面积 (N2)
    Grassland area
    人均草地面积 Per capita grassland area/hm2 0.552
    物质资本 Material capital 住房资产 (M1)
    Housing condition
    土木房为0.33;砖木房为0.67;混凝土房为1.0
    The civil house is 0.33; the brick house is 0.67; the concrete house is 1.0
    0.443
    牲畜资产 (M2)
    Livestock assets
    马/骡为1.0;牛为0.8;羊为0.3;猪为0.2
    Horses/mule is 1.0; cattle is 0.8; sheep is 0.3; pig is 0.2
    0.312
    固定资产 (M3)
    Fixed assets
    调查户所拥有的资产数占所列资产选项的比例
    The ratio of an asset to total assets
    0.245
    社会资本 Social capital 社会关系 (S1)
    Social relationship
    遇到困难时,能提供帮助的亲友数。10个以上为1;7~10个为0.75;4~6个为0.5;1~3个为0.25;0个为0 The number of friends and relatives who can help you when you are in trouble, more than 10 is 1; 7~10 is 0.75; 4~6 is 0.5; 1~3 is 0.25; 0 is 0 0.302
    社会阅历 (S2)
    Social experience
    家庭成员中是否有村委会成员或公职人员。有为1;无为0 Whether there are village committee members or public officials in the family, yes is 1; no is 0 0.698
    金融资本 Financial capital 现金收入 (F1)
    Cash income
    人均年现金收入/元
    Per capita annual cash income/CNY
    0.848
    信贷能力 (F2)
    Credit capacity
    是否有贷款。有为1;无为 0 Is there a loan, yes is 1; no is 0 0.152
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 3  重庆欢乐生肖 农户面临的生计风险

    Table 3.  重庆欢乐生肖 Farmers’ livelihood risk

    风险类型
    Risk type
    夏河县 Xiahe County基本型 Basic type缺失型 Deficit type发展型 Developmental
    担心
    Worried/%
    最担心 The most
    worried/%
    担心
    Worried/%
    最担心 The most
    worried/%
    担心
    Worried/%
    最担心 The most
    worried/%
    担心
    Worried/%
    最担心 The most
    worried/%
    就业 Employment 79.81 44.23 82.35 38.24 81.25 56.25 70.00 55.00
    自然 Natural 51.92 5.77 50.00 5.88 68.75 6.25 40.00 5.00
    健康 Health 40.38 16.35 48.53 20.59 18.75 6.25 30.00 10.00
    教育 Education 37.50 14.42 41.18 17.65 31.25 12.50 30.00 5.00
    养老 Pension 19.23 3.85 17.65 4.41 31.25 0.00 15.00 5.00
    市场 Market 17.31 0.00 23.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 0.00
    婚嫁 Marriage 14.42 12.50 14.71 13.24 12.50 12.50 15.00 10.00
    住房 Housing 9.62 2.88 4.41 0.00 6.25 6.25 20.00 10.00
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 4  重庆欢乐生肖 农户采取的风险应对策略

    Table 4.  Farmers' risk copying strategies

    风险应对策略
    Risk coping strategy
    夏河县 Xiahe County基本型 Basic type缺失型 Deficit type发展型 Developmental
    采取 Adopt/%首选 First choice/%采取 Adopt/%首选 First choice/%采取 Adopt/%首选 First choice/%采取 Adopt/%首选 First choice/%
    减少消费 Reduce consumption 31.73 0.96 29.41 1.47 68.75 0.00 10.00 0.00
    动用储蓄 Dissaving 31.73 0.96 27.94 0.00 62.50 0.00 20.00 5.00
    向亲友求助 Ask friends and relatives for help 57.69 11.54 70.59 11.77 25.00 12.50 40.00 10.00
    向银行借款 Bank loan 47.12 12.50 54.41 8.82 18.75 12.50 45.00 25.00
    出售资产 Sell assets 3.85 2.88 5.88 4.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    外出务工
    Become a migrant worker
    75.96 60.58 76.47 60.29 75.00 68.75 75.00 55.00
    改进生产技术 Improved production technology 4.81 2.88 5.88 2.94 0.00 0.00 5.00 5.00
    孩子辍学
    Children drop out of school
    1.92 0.00 2.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    等政府救济
    Wait for government relief
    38.46 7.69 44.12 10.29 37.50 6.25 20.00 0.00
    购买商业保险 Purchase commercial insurance 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 5  影响农户风险应对策略选择的因素

    Table 5.  Factors influencing the selection of risk coping strategies for farmers

    资本
    Capital
    外出务工 (模型1) Become a migrant worker (Model 1)向亲友求助 (模型2)
    Ask friends and relatives
    for help (Model 2)
    向银行贷款 (模型3)
    Bank loan (Model 3)
    等政府救济 (模型4)
    Wait for government
    relief (Model 4)
    BWaldExp (b)BWaldExp (b)BWaldExp (b)BWaldExp (b)
    人力 Human 1.520 1.441 4.573 0.915 0.683 2.498 0.368 0.096 1.445 −0.474 0.182 0.623
    自然 Natural −0.341 0.095 0.711 2.707*** 7.369 14.990 2.240** 4.714 9.395 −0.251 0.066 0.778
    物质 Material 0.207 0.008 1.230 −0.744 0.141 0.475 −0.487 0.052 0.615 3.037 2.299 20.848
    金融 Financial 1.406 0.850 4.082 0.047 0.001 1.048 5.440*** 11.703 230.474 −2.489* 3.547 0.083
    社会 Social −0.777 1.331 0.460 −0.375 0.347 0.687 −1.324* 2.963 0.266 0.624 0.769 1.867
    对数似然值
    Log likelihood
    0.000 9.320 16.427 4.840
    Chi-square检验值 Chi square test value −1.291 7.897*** 20.272*** 3.948**
    预测准确率
    Forecast accuracy/%
    76.00 65.40 73.10 64.40
     B,回归系数;Wald,卡方值;Exp(b),发生比率比。*、**、***分别表示在0.1、0.05和0.01的水平上统计显著。
     B, regression coefficients; Wald, wald; Exp(b), odds ratio exp. *, **, and ***, indicate significant differences at 0.1, 0.05, and 0.01 levels, respectively.
    下载: 导出CSV
    重庆欢乐生肖 Yabo下载_Yabo官网下载 加拿大pc_加拿大pc官网 重庆欢乐生肖 重庆欢乐生肖 重庆欢乐生肖
  • <code id='5d9fb'><i id='5d9fb'><q id='5d9fb'><legend id='5d9fb'><pre id='5d9fb'><style id='5d9fb'><acronym id='5d9fb'><i id='5d9fb'><form id='5d9fb'><option id='5d9fb'><center id='5d9fb'></center></option></form></i></acronym></style><tt id='5d9fb'></tt></pre></legend></q></i></code><center id='5d9fb'></center>

      <dd id='5d9fb'></dd>

          <style id='5d9fb'></style><sub id='5d9fb'><dfn id='5d9fb'><abbr id='5d9fb'><big id='5d9fb'><bdo id='5d9fb'></bdo></big></abbr></dfn></sub>
          <dir id='5d9fb'></dir>
      1. 加载中
      2. 计量
        • PDF下载量:  14
        • 文章访问数:  1975
        • HTML全文浏览量:  193
        文章相关
        • 通讯作者:  郭秀丽,
        • 收稿日期:  2019-02-02
        • 网络出版日期:  2019-09-18
        • 刊出日期:  2019-10-15
        通讯作者: 陈斌,
        • 1. 

          shenyanghuagongdaxuecailiaokexueyugongchengxueyuan shenyang 110142

        1. 本站搜索
        2. 百度学术搜索
        3. 万方数据库搜索
        4. CNKI搜索

        /

        返回文章
        重庆欢乐生肖 Yabo下载_Yabo官网下载 加拿大pc_加拿大pc官网 重庆欢乐生肖 重庆欢乐生肖 重庆欢乐生肖